Rise of Statistical Thinking
Rise
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Theodore Porter argued in "The Rise of Statistical Thinking" that
the effort to provide a synthetic social science is a matter of both
administration and discovery combined, and that the rise of social
science was, therefore, marked by both pragmatic needs as much as by
theoretical purity. An example of this is the rise of the concept of
Intelligence Quotient, or IQ, a test which produces a number which
it is not clear what, precisely, is being measured, except that it
has pragmatic utility in predicting success in certain tasks.
The rise of industrialism had created a series of social, economic,
and political problems, particularly in managing supply and demand
in their political economy, the management of resources for military
and developmental use, the creation of mass education systems to
train individuals in symbolic reasoning and problems in managing the
effects of industrialization itself. |
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The perceived senselessness of the "Great War" as it was then
called, of 1914-1918, now called World War I, based in what were
perceived to be "emotional" and "irrational" decisions, provided an
immediate impetus for a form of decision making that was more
"scientific" and easier to manage. Simply put, to manage the new
multi-national enterprises, private and governmental, required more
data. More data required a means of reducing it to information upon
which to make decisions. Numbers and charts could be interpreted
more quickly and moved more efficiently than long texts.
In the 1930s this new model of managing decision making became
cemented with the New Deal in the US, and in Europe with the
increasing need to manage industrial production and governmental
affairs. Institutions such as The New School for Social Research,
International Institute of Social History, and departments of
"social research" at prestigious universities were meant to fill the
growing demand for individuals who could quantify human interactions
and produce models for decision making on this basis.
Coupled with this pragmatic need was the belief that the clarity and
simplicity of mathematical expression avoided systematic errors of
holistic thinking and logic rooted in traditional argument. This
trend, part of the larger movement known as Modernism provided the
rhetorical edge for the expansion of social sciences.
Present state
There continues to be little movement toward consensus on what
methodology might have the power and refinement to connect a
proposed "grand theory" with the various midrange theories which,
with considerable success, continue to provide usable frameworks for
massive, growing data banks.
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